Professional forecasters surveyed by the European Central Bank have revised slightly their expectations for inflation in the euro zone this year and next, maintaining their projection that inflation will slow sharply below the ECB's target, the ECB said in its Monthly Bulletin published Thursday.
The marginal changes in the inflation outlook may provide ammunition to the expectations of some economists that the ECB has ample room as inflation is concerned to continue cutting interest rates.
The upward adjustment in this year's inflation forecast was due to an expected increase in taxes and administered prices as some countries are planning to shore up budget revenues amid the euro-zone's sovereign debt crisis, as well as to an expected rise in oil prices and a weaker euro, the ECB said.
The small downward revision in next year's inflation forecast was a result of the weakening outlook for economic growth on the back of fiscal consolidation efforts in the region and expectations for higher unemployment, the ECB added.
Professional forecasters estimated in the ECB's quarterly survey that the harmonized index of consumer prices will be 1.9% this year in the euro zone on average, slightly above the 1.8% anticipated in the last poll in November.
For 2013, the forecasters see inflation at 1.7% on average, below the also 1.8% predicted in November.
The longer-term inflation forecast, going out to 2016, remained unchanged at 2.0%.
The survey of professional forecasters is widely believed to carry a significant weight in the ECB's formulation of monetary policy, which aims to keep inflation close to, but below, 2% over the medium term.
No comments:
Post a Comment