Fitch Ratings said it believes short-term risks to the global economy have eased over the past few months, though it continues to expect a bumpy recovery among the world's major advanced economies, particularly in Europe.
Pointing to a 0.3% decline in the euro zone's fourth-quarter gross domestic product and other weak economic data, Fitch said it believes a recession in the first half of 2012 is likely for the region.
Euro-zone businesses suffered their first fall in exports in two-and-a-half years in the fourth quarter, underscoring the real economic impact of the region's massive sovereign debt crisis.
In contrast to problems in Europe, Fitch said the recovery in the U.S. has gained momentum, supported by the stronger-than-expected improvement in the labor market and a seeming strengthening of confidences among businesses and households.
In line with those improvements, Fitch raised its forecast for U.S. growth this year to 2.2% from 1.8%. It kept its 2013 forecast unchanged at 2.6%.
As a whole, Fitch expects the growth of major advanced economies to remain weak at 1.1% this year, a slight revision from the 1.2% growth last predicted in December. The firm also notched down its expectations for next year, to 1.8% growth from 1.9% previously seen.
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