Quotes from Standard Chartered:
-Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy makers will meet on 19 September. We
expect them to keep the overnight rate unchanged at 0.10% and the
Asset Purchase Program target at JPY 70trn. Nonetheless, there is
increasing debate over whether the BoJ is doing enough to support
growth, as well as its commitment to achieve its 1% inflation target
by 2014.
-Some domestic politicians have recommended that the BoJ consider
purchasing foreign bonds to curb yen strength. Recent data shows
growth momentum slowing rapidly as demand stemming from earthquake
reconstruction spending starts to wane; we see this adding to the
pressure on the BoJ to act and consider boosting its monetary arsenal
as early as Q4-2012.
Tuesday, 18 September 2012
2012.09.18 10:35:22 RESEARCH: AUD/USD review
Quotes from Societe Generale Cross Asset Research:
-AUD/USD 1.0437-1.0487 overnight range. RBA minutes no major event for
the AUD. Following the exhaustion of the rally over 1.06, risk of a
retracement extending back to 1.0328, the 200d ma. Support before at
1.0408.
-AUD/USD 1.0437-1.0487 overnight range. RBA minutes no major event for
the AUD. Following the exhaustion of the rally over 1.06, risk of a
retracement extending back to 1.0328, the 200d ma. Support before at
1.0408.
Monday, 17 September 2012
2012.09.17 13:25:10 Merkel commits to convince opposition on Swiss tax deal
Merkel commits to convince opposition on Swiss tax deal
Saturday, 15 September 2012
Friday, 14 September 2012
2012.09.14 12:55:43 EZ finance ministers yet to reach an agreement on the ESM loans pricing
EZ finance ministers yet to reach an agreement on the ESM loans pricing
Thursday, 13 September 2012
2012.09.13 14:47:13 RESEARCH: Further 100bp of repo rate cuts likely from RBI in FY 12-13
Quotes from Barclays Capital:
-Indian policymakers remain in a tough spot - constrained by high
inflation (despite the somewhat softer print last month), but with a
clear need to support growth given weak industrial activity and
faltering domestic confidence.
-With growth settling around 5.5% y/y in recent quarters and no sign
of any quick turnaround, the pressure on policymakers is increasing.
This latest IP reading further underscores the extent of the slowdown
in growth momentum.
-We think the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) growth projection of 6.5%
for FY 12-13 now looks increasingly optimistic (Barclays: 5.8%). Given
this situation, we think the policy focus needs to become a lot more
balanced between inflation and growth.
-Markedly sub-par growth, softening in core inflation, near-zero
fiscal spending headroom and likely only hesitant government policy
initiatives to revive the economy will eventually lead to sizeable
monetary accommodation in coming months, in our view. We maintain our
expectation of a further 100bp of repo rate cuts in FY 12-13.
-Indian policymakers remain in a tough spot - constrained by high
inflation (despite the somewhat softer print last month), but with a
clear need to support growth given weak industrial activity and
faltering domestic confidence.
-With growth settling around 5.5% y/y in recent quarters and no sign
of any quick turnaround, the pressure on policymakers is increasing.
This latest IP reading further underscores the extent of the slowdown
in growth momentum.
-We think the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) growth projection of 6.5%
for FY 12-13 now looks increasingly optimistic (Barclays: 5.8%). Given
this situation, we think the policy focus needs to become a lot more
balanced between inflation and growth.
-Markedly sub-par growth, softening in core inflation, near-zero
fiscal spending headroom and likely only hesitant government policy
initiatives to revive the economy will eventually lead to sizeable
monetary accommodation in coming months, in our view. We maintain our
expectation of a further 100bp of repo rate cuts in FY 12-13.
2012.09.13 12:01:56 IRELAND CPI YY (AUG) ACTUAL **** 2.0 PCT ***** (PVS 1.60 PCT)
IRELAND CPI YY (AUG) ACTUAL **** 2.0 PCT ***** (PVS 1.60 PCT)
2012.09.13 11:43:51 U.N. FAO CHIEF - - DOES NOT CURRENTLY SEE NEED FOR G20 EMERGENCY MEETING ON FOOD PRICES, BUT FOLLOWING PRICE VOLATILITY CLOSELY
U.N. FAO CHIEF - - DOES NOT CURRENTLY SEE NEED FOR G20 EMERGENCY
MEETING ON FOOD PRICES, BUT FOLLOWING PRICE VOLATILITY CLOSELY
MEETING ON FOOD PRICES, BUT FOLLOWING PRICE VOLATILITY CLOSELY
2012.09.13 11:16:46 ITALIAN 4 BLN EURO JULY 2015 BTP BOND AUCTION GROSS YIELD 2.75 PCT, BID-COVER 1.485
ITALIAN 4 BLN EURO JULY 2015 BTP BOND AUCTION GROSS YIELD 2.75 PCT,
BID-COVER 1.485
BID-COVER 1.485
2012.09.13 02:02:24 KOSPI DOWN 0.09 PCT AT MKT OPEN
2012.09.13 02:02:24 KOSPI DOWN 0.09 PCT AT MKT OPEN
2012.09.12 16:13:17 US wholesale inventories rose by the most in five months in July
News
US wholesale inventories climbed 0.7 pct to $485.2 bln, beating
expectations of 0.2 pct, the biggest increase since Feb
The automobile inventories rose 0.4 pct and computer equipment stocks
jumped 3.8 pct, while metals fell 0.7 pct.
Wholesaler sales edged 0.1 pct lower after falling 1.4 pct the prior
month; market expected sales to increase 0.7 pct.
Sales declined with furniture falling 0.5 pct and machinery down 1
pct. Petroleum sales dropped 2 pct, but auto sales increased 0.8 pct.
US wholesale inventories climbed 0.7 pct to $485.2 bln, beating
expectations of 0.2 pct, the biggest increase since Feb
The automobile inventories rose 0.4 pct and computer equipment stocks
jumped 3.8 pct, while metals fell 0.7 pct.
Wholesaler sales edged 0.1 pct lower after falling 1.4 pct the prior
month; market expected sales to increase 0.7 pct.
Sales declined with furniture falling 0.5 pct and machinery down 1
pct. Petroleum sales dropped 2 pct, but auto sales increased 0.8 pct.
Wednesday, 12 September 2012
2012.09.12 14:54:13 BoE's Broadbent : would extend support if needed
News
Broadbent said that he would back more QE to stimulate the economy if
the circumstances warranted it.
He rejected the idea that the latest fall in unemployment meant he
would oppose another increase in asset purchases.
Quotes
"I can't say what's going to happen to employment over the future.
Fortunately I am in a position where I can judge those things month by
month. I am never going to and I don't believe that I can commit to
what will be the right policy in the future."
Ben Broadbent, policymaker, BoE
Broadbent said that he would back more QE to stimulate the economy if
the circumstances warranted it.
He rejected the idea that the latest fall in unemployment meant he
would oppose another increase in asset purchases.
Quotes
"I can't say what's going to happen to employment over the future.
Fortunately I am in a position where I can judge those things month by
month. I am never going to and I don't believe that I can commit to
what will be the right policy in the future."
Ben Broadbent, policymaker, BoE
2012.09.12 14:54:13 BoE's Broadbent : would extend support if needed
News
Broadbent said that he would back more QE to stimulate the economy if
the circumstances warranted it.
He rejected the idea that the latest fall in unemployment meant he
would oppose another increase in asset purchases.
Quotes
"I can't say what's going to happen to employment over the future.
Fortunately I am in a position where I can judge those things month by
month. I am never going to and I don't believe that I can commit to
what will be the right policy in the future."
Ben Broadbent, policymaker, BoE
Broadbent said that he would back more QE to stimulate the economy if
the circumstances warranted it.
He rejected the idea that the latest fall in unemployment meant he
would oppose another increase in asset purchases.
Quotes
"I can't say what's going to happen to employment over the future.
Fortunately I am in a position where I can judge those things month by
month. I am never going to and I don't believe that I can commit to
what will be the right policy in the future."
Ben Broadbent, policymaker, BoE
2012.09.12 09:28:00 EU'S BARROSO - - - IT IS WITHIN THE ECB'S MANDATE TO BUY BONDS IN THE SECONDARY MARKET, IT IS ITS DUTY TO RESTORE MONETARY POLICY INTEGRITY
EU'S BARROSO - - - IT IS WITHIN THE ECB'S MANDATE TO BUY BONDS IN THE
SECONDARY MARKET, IT IS ITS DUTY TO RESTORE MONETARY POLICY INTEGRITY
SECONDARY MARKET, IT IS ITS DUTY TO RESTORE MONETARY POLICY INTEGRITY
2012.09.12 01:51:19 JAPAN CORP GOODS PRICE MM (AUG) ACTUAL**** +0.3 PCT **** (POLL 0.2 PCT ) (PVS -0.4 PCT )
JAPAN CORP GOODS PRICE MM (AUG) ACTUAL**** +0.3 PCT **** (POLL 0.2 PCT
) (PVS -0.4 PCT )
) (PVS -0.4 PCT )
2012.09.11 21:03:51 U.S. crude end higher ahead of Fed
News
U.S. crude futures settled higher on expectations that Fed will
provide additional monetary stimulus to bolster the economy put
pressure on USD
U.S. October crude rose 63 cents to settle at $97.17 a bbl
U.S. crude futures settled higher on expectations that Fed will
provide additional monetary stimulus to bolster the economy put
pressure on USD
U.S. October crude rose 63 cents to settle at $97.17 a bbl
2012.09.11 17:58:10 European shares settled higher on banking shares
News
European shares edged higher on banking shares after Deutsche bank
said it would not ask shareholders for more cash to strengthen its
capital base.
The broader STOXX 600 Euro zone banking index gained 1.7 pct to fresh
six-month highs
The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index provisionally closed 0.3 pct
higher at 1,107.11 points.
European shares edged higher on banking shares after Deutsche bank
said it would not ask shareholders for more cash to strengthen its
capital base.
The broader STOXX 600 Euro zone banking index gained 1.7 pct to fresh
six-month highs
The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index provisionally closed 0.3 pct
higher at 1,107.11 points.
Tuesday, 11 September 2012
2012.09.11 14:38:57 U.S. trade gap expands marginally in July on lower exports
U.S. trade gap expands marginally in July on lower exports
2012.09.11 11:55:04 BOE'S MCCAFFERTY - - - SIGNS THAT PRODUCTIVITY RATHER THAN EMPLOYMENT LEVEL BECOMING MORE CYCLICAL
CHINA'S WEN - -- WILL MEET THIS YEAR'S ECONOMIC GROWTH TARGET
2012.09.10 22:09:05 USD/CAD intraday: caution.
USD/CAD intraday: caution.
Update on supports and resistances.
Pivot: 0.9785
Our preference: Short positions below 0.9785 with targets @ 0.9735 &
0.9705 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.9785 look for further upside with 0.981
& 0.9835 as targets.
Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum.
Key levels
0.9835
0.981
0.9785
0.9775 last
0.9735
0.9705
0.9675
Copyright 1999 - 2012 TRADING CENTRAL
Trading Central recommends MT5 to publish FX charts
Copyright Trading Central 1999-2011
Update on supports and resistances.
Pivot: 0.9785
Our preference: Short positions below 0.9785 with targets @ 0.9735 &
0.9705 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.9785 look for further upside with 0.981
& 0.9835 as targets.
Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum.
Key levels
0.9835
0.981
0.9785
0.9775 last
0.9735
0.9705
0.9675
Copyright 1999 - 2012 TRADING CENTRAL
Trading Central recommends MT5 to publish FX charts
Copyright Trading Central 1999-2011
2012.09.10 22:09:05 USD/CAD intraday: caution.
USD/CAD intraday: caution.
Update on supports and resistances.
Pivot: 0.9785
Our preference: Short positions below 0.9785 with targets @ 0.9735 &
0.9705 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.9785 look for further upside with 0.981
& 0.9835 as targets.
Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum.
Key levels
0.9835
0.981
0.9785
0.9775 last
0.9735
0.9705
0.9675
Copyright 1999 - 2012 TRADING CENTRAL
Trading Central recommends MT5 to publish FX charts
Copyright Trading Central 1999-2011
Update on supports and resistances.
Pivot: 0.9785
Our preference: Short positions below 0.9785 with targets @ 0.9735 &
0.9705 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.9785 look for further upside with 0.981
& 0.9835 as targets.
Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum.
Key levels
0.9835
0.981
0.9785
0.9775 last
0.9735
0.9705
0.9675
Copyright 1999 - 2012 TRADING CENTRAL
Trading Central recommends MT5 to publish FX charts
Copyright Trading Central 1999-2011
Monday, 10 September 2012
2012.09.10 14:14:18 Czech gross borrowing needs expected to be lower at 239 bln CZK in 2013- budget draft
News
Czech gross borrowing needs are likely to be around 238.8 billion CZK
in 2013, down from 243.4 billion in 2012 - budget draft
The Govt plans to sell 136.6 billion crowns worth of domestic bonds,
and 50.4 billion crowns in foreign market issues
The draft also showed that net treasury bill issuance is seen at 30.1
billion crowns
Czech gross borrowing needs are likely to be around 238.8 billion CZK
in 2013, down from 243.4 billion in 2012 - budget draft
The Govt plans to sell 136.6 billion crowns worth of domestic bonds,
and 50.4 billion crowns in foreign market issues
The draft also showed that net treasury bill issuance is seen at 30.1
billion crowns
2012.09.10 11:39:59 GERMAN GOV'T SPOX - NOTHING HAS CHANGED REGARDING CONSTITUTIONALITY OF ESM AFTER MP'S COMPLAINT ABOUT ECB BOND-BUYING PLAN
GERMAN GOV'T SPOX - NOTHING HAS CHANGED REGARDING CONSTITUTIONALITY OF
ESM AFTER MP'S COMPLAINT ABOUT ECB BOND-BUYING PLAN
ESM AFTER MP'S COMPLAINT ABOUT ECB BOND-BUYING PLAN
2012.09.10 11:34:59 UK BOE - - BIS'S GOVERNORS HAVE SET UP GROUP TO EXAMINE LIBOR ISSUES
UK BOE - - BIS'S GOVERNORS HAVE SET UP GROUP TO EXAMINE LIBOR ISSUES
2012.09.10 11:07:54 SIX-MONTH EURIBOR AT 0.509 PCT (PVS 0.515 PCT)
FRANCE SELLS ADDITIONAL 1.466 BLN EUROS OF OATS AFTER THURSDAY AUCTION
2012.09.10 08:31:48 BANK OF FRANCE - - PROJECTS 0.1 PCT DECLINE IN GDP IN Q3 OF 2012, (PVS 0.1 PCT)
BANK OF FRANCE - - PROJECTS 0.1 PCT DECLINE IN GDP IN Q3 OF 2012, (PVS 0.1 PCT)
2012.09.10 08:23:13 INDIA'S CBANK DEP- PRESENT LIQUIDITY SITUATION COMFORTABLE
BANK OF FRANCE - - PROJECTS 0.1 PCT DECLINE IN GDP IN Q3 OF 2012, (PVS 0.1 PCT)
Friday, 7 September 2012
2012.09.07 09:14:54 RESEARCH: USD/JPY review
Quotes from Societe Generale Cross Asset Research:
-AUD/USD 1.0276-1.0335 overnight range. July trade data ignored as
Asian stocks rally and reported AUD buying interest by BHP for
dividend purposes (28/9 payment date). Back over the 200d ma at
1.0318, resistance 1.0350/77.
-AUD/USD 1.0276-1.0335 overnight range. July trade data ignored as
Asian stocks rally and reported AUD buying interest by BHP for
dividend purposes (28/9 payment date). Back over the 200d ma at
1.0318, resistance 1.0350/77.
2012.09.07 02:14:27 JAPAN FINMIN AZUMI - - POTENTIAL FUND SHORTAGE COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT LIVELIHOODS, ECONOMY
JAPAN FINMIN AZUMI - - POTENTIAL FUND SHORTAGE COULD SIGNIFICANTLY
AFFECT LIVELIHOODS, ECONOMY
AFFECT LIVELIHOODS, ECONOMY
2012.09.07 02:01:42 S. KOREA'S KOSPI AT MKT OPEN - ( +2.0 PCT)
S. KOREA'S KOSPI AT MKT OPEN - ( +2.0 PCT)
2012.09.06 21:59:27 EUR/JPY intraday: further advance.
EUR/JPY intraday: further advance.
Update on supports and resistances.
Pivot: 99
Our preference: Long positions above 99 with targets @ 99.9 & 100.3 in
extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 99 look for further downside with 98.65 &
98.45 as targets.
Comment: the pair stands above its new support and remains on the upside.
Key levels
100.8
100.3
99.9
99.69 last
99
98.65
98.45
Copyright 1999 - 2012 TRADING CENTRAL
Trading Central recommends MT5 to publish FX charts
Copyright Trading Central 1999-2011
Update on supports and resistances.
Pivot: 99
Our preference: Long positions above 99 with targets @ 99.9 & 100.3 in
extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 99 look for further downside with 98.65 &
98.45 as targets.
Comment: the pair stands above its new support and remains on the upside.
Key levels
100.8
100.3
99.9
99.69 last
99
98.65
98.45
Copyright 1999 - 2012 TRADING CENTRAL
Trading Central recommends MT5 to publish FX charts
Copyright Trading Central 1999-2011
Wednesday, 5 September 2012
2012.09.05 15:35:39 RESEARCH: Combination of looser US monetary policy and fiscal cliff is moving crisis away from eurozone and towards US
Quotes from HSBC Global Research:
-It seems increasingly likely that the Fed will move to ease policy
again soon. The precise nature and timing of the easing remains
uncertain, but there are good reasons why the market is expecting a
move at the next FOMC meeting on September 13.
-In addition, we believe we are at a point of inflection right now.
The combination of looser US monetary policy and the fiscal cliff is
moving the crisis away from the eurozone and towards the US.
-The further loosening of monetary policy should induce a 'risk-on'
market environment - USD negative. Meanwhile, the fiscal cliff will
focus attention back on US structural problems. This is a world of
rotating sovereign risk and further QE, the election, and the
impending fiscal cliff is seeing the FX market shift its focus away
from the EUR towards the USD.
-It seems increasingly likely that the Fed will move to ease policy
again soon. The precise nature and timing of the easing remains
uncertain, but there are good reasons why the market is expecting a
move at the next FOMC meeting on September 13.
-In addition, we believe we are at a point of inflection right now.
The combination of looser US monetary policy and the fiscal cliff is
moving the crisis away from the eurozone and towards the US.
-The further loosening of monetary policy should induce a 'risk-on'
market environment - USD negative. Meanwhile, the fiscal cliff will
focus attention back on US structural problems. This is a world of
rotating sovereign risk and further QE, the election, and the
impending fiscal cliff is seeing the FX market shift its focus away
from the EUR towards the USD.
2012.09.05 13:08:32 U.S. mortgage applications fell last week on lower refinancing - MBA
Quotes from Societe Generale Cross Asset Research:
-The Bank of Canada is not expected to change its key overnight target
rate today, and instead is likely to reiterate that a tightening in
monetary policy may soon become appropriate, consistent with achieving
the 2% inflation target over the medium term.
-The situation in the eurozone will overshadow the policy decision,
and it can therefore be concluded that until the fog lifts, the
central bank may not be rushed to sanction the first hike since
September 2010.
-The Bank of Canada is not expected to change its key overnight target
rate today, and instead is likely to reiterate that a tightening in
monetary policy may soon become appropriate, consistent with achieving
the 2% inflation target over the medium term.
-The situation in the eurozone will overshadow the policy decision,
and it can therefore be concluded that until the fog lifts, the
central bank may not be rushed to sanction the first hike since
September 2010.
2012.09.05 09:44:58 MOODY'S - - DOWNGRADES SHARP'S SHORT-TERM RATINGS TO NOT PRIME
MOODY'S - - DOWNGRADES SHARP'S SHORT-TERM RATINGS TO NOT PRIME
2012.09.05 07:00:44 INDIA HSBC SVCS. PMI (AUG) ACTUAL****** 55.0******(PVS 54.2 )
INDIA HSBC SVCS. PMI (AUG) ACTUAL****** 55.0******(PVS 54.2 )
2012.09.05 06:11:47 AUD/USD intraday: the downside prevails.
AUD/USD intraday: the downside prevails.
Update on supports and resistances.
Pivot: 1.0245
Our preference: Short positions below 1.0245 with targets @ 1.017 &
1.015 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.0245 look for further upside with 1.0285
& 1.0315 as targets.
Comment: even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be
ruled out, its extent should be limited.
Key levels
1.0315
1.0285
1.0245
1.0214 last
1.017
1.015
1.0135
Copyright 1999 - 2012 TRADING CENTRAL
Trading Central recommends MT5 to publish FX charts
Copyright Trading Central 1999-2011
Update on supports and resistances.
Pivot: 1.0245
Our preference: Short positions below 1.0245 with targets @ 1.017 &
1.015 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.0245 look for further upside with 1.0285
& 1.0315 as targets.
Comment: even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be
ruled out, its extent should be limited.
Key levels
1.0315
1.0285
1.0245
1.0214 last
1.017
1.015
1.0135
Copyright 1999 - 2012 TRADING CENTRAL
Trading Central recommends MT5 to publish FX charts
Copyright Trading Central 1999-2011
2012.09.05 04:32:24 BOJ BOARD'S MIYAO - - GLOBAL SLOWDOWN FEARS, RISK AVERSION DRIVEN BY EUROPE DEBT WOES ARE LIKELY BEHIND FALLING BOND YIELDS IN ADVANCED NATIONS
News
Chinese services PMI declined to 52.0 in August from 53.1, as new
business sub-index slumped to lowest pace since 2011
However, very important sub-index of unemployment rose to 52.7, giving
some time to policy makers to fine tune their monetary policy as they
have promised in past
Policy makers will be under pressure from this reading as services
sector which contributes 43 pct to economic activity, is seen
entering a lull phase of activity, while mfg index has already entered
into contraction zone on both the PMIs
However, Govt is still expected to remain cautious and selective in
providing further stimulus to the economy to prevent forming bubble in
sectors like property market
Quotes
"Service providers in China expressed optimism regarding the
business outlook,"
"There were also reports of new product developments and business
expansion plans. However, the extent of positive sentiment was the
lowest in eight months, and muted in the context of historical data."
Markit Economics
Chinese services PMI declined to 52.0 in August from 53.1, as new
business sub-index slumped to lowest pace since 2011
However, very important sub-index of unemployment rose to 52.7, giving
some time to policy makers to fine tune their monetary policy as they
have promised in past
Policy makers will be under pressure from this reading as services
sector which contributes 43 pct to economic activity, is seen
entering a lull phase of activity, while mfg index has already entered
into contraction zone on both the PMIs
However, Govt is still expected to remain cautious and selective in
providing further stimulus to the economy to prevent forming bubble in
sectors like property market
Quotes
"Service providers in China expressed optimism regarding the
business outlook,"
"There were also reports of new product developments and business
expansion plans. However, the extent of positive sentiment was the
lowest in eight months, and muted in the context of historical data."
Markit Economics
2012.09.05 04:31:24 BOJ BOARD'S MIYAO - - - RISK OF DELAY IN OVERSEAS RECOVERY HEIGHTENING
BOJ BOARD'S MIYAO - - - RISK OF DELAY IN OVERSEAS RECOVERY HEIGHTENING
2012.09.04 21:58:24 EUR/USD intraday: caution.
EUR/USD intraday: caution.
Update on supports and resistances.
Pivot: 1.2555
Our preference: Long positions above 1.2555 with targets @ 1.263 &
1.267 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.2555 look for further downside with
1.252 & 1.249 as targets.
Comment: the pair is challenging a key support area, caution.
Key levels
1.2695
1.267
1.263
1.25666 last
1.2555
1.252
1.249
Copyright 1999 - 2012 TRADING CENTRAL
Trading Central recommends MT5 to publish FX charts
Copyright Trading Central 1999-2011
Update on supports and resistances.
Pivot: 1.2555
Our preference: Long positions above 1.2555 with targets @ 1.263 &
1.267 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.2555 look for further downside with
1.252 & 1.249 as targets.
Comment: the pair is challenging a key support area, caution.
Key levels
1.2695
1.267
1.263
1.25666 last
1.2555
1.252
1.249
Copyright 1999 - 2012 TRADING CENTRAL
Trading Central recommends MT5 to publish FX charts
Copyright Trading Central 1999-2011
2012.09.04 21:58:32 USD/JPY intraday: key ST resistance at 78.45.
USD/JPY intraday: key ST resistance at 78.45.
Update on supports and resistances.
Pivot: 78.45
Our preference: Short positions below 78.45 with targets @ 78.2 & 78.1
in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 78.45 look for further upside with 78.55 &
78.65 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bearish bias.
Key levels
78.65
78.55
78.45
78.4 last
78.2
78.1
78
Copyright 1999 - 2012 TRADING CENTRAL
Trading Central recommends MT5 to publish FX charts
Copyright Trading Central 1999-2011
Update on supports and resistances.
Pivot: 78.45
Our preference: Short positions below 78.45 with targets @ 78.2 & 78.1
in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 78.45 look for further upside with 78.55 &
78.65 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bearish bias.
Key levels
78.65
78.55
78.45
78.4 last
78.2
78.1
78
Copyright 1999 - 2012 TRADING CENTRAL
Trading Central recommends MT5 to publish FX charts
Copyright Trading Central 1999-2011
2012.09.04 21:18:40 Australia likely to report robust Q2 economic growth
News
Australia is expected to report robust Q2 economic growth despite
slowdown in China and sliding export prices
GDP figures for the Q2 should show the A$1.4 trillion economy still
grew a robust 0.7 pct. That would come after a blistering 1.3 pct rise
in Q1
The government will release the data at 0130 GMT.
Australia is expected to report robust Q2 economic growth despite
slowdown in China and sliding export prices
GDP figures for the Q2 should show the A$1.4 trillion economy still
grew a robust 0.7 pct. That would come after a blistering 1.3 pct rise
in Q1
The government will release the data at 0130 GMT.
Tuesday, 4 September 2012
2012.09.04 13:07:04 RESEARCH: Euroarea inflation set to drop sharply in 2013
Quotes from Societe Generale Cross Asset Research:
-Euroarea headline inflation hit a new three-year peak of 3.0% in Q4
last year as higher energy prices continued to boost inflation.
Assuming oil prices do not breach their previous high, inflation is
set to drop sharply in 2013. Pressures from food prices are expected
to move to the upside, but there is little sign of much upward
pressure in either wages or service price inflation.
-However, given the weakness of activity, it is surprising that core
inflation does not fall more sharply. We attribute this to significant
nominal rigidity and pricing power, particularly on the side of
producers. Italian inflation for example has proved remarkably robust
despite the weakness of the economy, and we expect this to be a major
factor preventing euro area inflation from falling more sharply. As a
result, we still expect inflation to average 2.7% in 2012, with core
inflation averaging 1.5%.
-Euroarea headline inflation hit a new three-year peak of 3.0% in Q4
last year as higher energy prices continued to boost inflation.
Assuming oil prices do not breach their previous high, inflation is
set to drop sharply in 2013. Pressures from food prices are expected
to move to the upside, but there is little sign of much upward
pressure in either wages or service price inflation.
-However, given the weakness of activity, it is surprising that core
inflation does not fall more sharply. We attribute this to significant
nominal rigidity and pricing power, particularly on the side of
producers. Italian inflation for example has proved remarkably robust
despite the weakness of the economy, and we expect this to be a major
factor preventing euro area inflation from falling more sharply. As a
result, we still expect inflation to average 2.7% in 2012, with core
inflation averaging 1.5%.
2012.09.04 12:27:04 RESEARCH: Inflation unlikely to abate fast in most countries
Quotes from Societe Generale Cross Asset Research:
-Inflation is unlikely to abate as fast as we previously anticipated
in most countries, despite the global economic slowdown. Three major
factors are contributing to a temporary rise in inflation.
-Firstly, oil prices have bounced back over the summer. Secondly, the
recent lift in grain food prices is a source of concern, in particular
in many emerging countries. Lastly, indirect taxes are set to rise in
some countries (euro area, Japan).
-Inflation has been quickening but second-round effects are virtually
nonexistent, notably because credit growth remains lacklustre. From a
monetary policy point of view, the key consequence is that the two
tail risks, deflation and inflation, are remote over the medium term.
This has left central banks with room for manoeuvre to focus on
reviving credit growth.
-Inflation is unlikely to abate as fast as we previously anticipated
in most countries, despite the global economic slowdown. Three major
factors are contributing to a temporary rise in inflation.
-Firstly, oil prices have bounced back over the summer. Secondly, the
recent lift in grain food prices is a source of concern, in particular
in many emerging countries. Lastly, indirect taxes are set to rise in
some countries (euro area, Japan).
-Inflation has been quickening but second-round effects are virtually
nonexistent, notably because credit growth remains lacklustre. From a
monetary policy point of view, the key consequence is that the two
tail risks, deflation and inflation, are remote over the medium term.
This has left central banks with room for manoeuvre to focus on
reviving credit growth.
2012.09.04 11:38:58 RESEARCH: SNB could have intervened by only CHF 23bn approximately
Quotes from RBS:
-Since the introduction of the FX floor (Sep-11), the SNB has been
leaving approximately two-thirds of its reserves unsterilized. If this
average ratio is maintained, then the latest sight deposit data
suggests that the SNB could have intervened by "only" CHF 23bn approx.
in August.
-Valuation changes in August should knock off CHF 3.3bn from the total
FX reserves. Thus, the intervention amount for the month of August
could be around CHF 19.5bn (or, EUR 16bn). This compares with CHF 44bn
in July and CHF 59bn in June.
-Since the introduction of the FX floor (Sep-11), the SNB has been
leaving approximately two-thirds of its reserves unsterilized. If this
average ratio is maintained, then the latest sight deposit data
suggests that the SNB could have intervened by "only" CHF 23bn approx.
in August.
-Valuation changes in August should knock off CHF 3.3bn from the total
FX reserves. Thus, the intervention amount for the month of August
could be around CHF 19.5bn (or, EUR 16bn). This compares with CHF 44bn
in July and CHF 59bn in June.
2012.09.04 09:39:48 RESEARCH: AUD/USD review
Quotes from Societe Generale Cross Asset Research:
-AUD/USD 1.0224-1.0285 overnight range. RBA unchanged and no major
tweak to the statement. AUD/JP demand overnight helped AUD/USD to
bounce from a 1.0224 low. Fortescue is cutting spending and jobs as
iron ore slides.
-AUD/USD 1.0224-1.0285 overnight range. RBA unchanged and no major
tweak to the statement. AUD/JP demand overnight helped AUD/USD to
bounce from a 1.0224 low. Fortescue is cutting spending and jobs as
iron ore slides.
Monday, 3 September 2012
2012.09.03 16:21:45 GBP/USD intraday: the upside prevails.
GBP/USD intraday: the upside prevails.
Update on supports and resistances.
Pivot: 1.5845
Our preference: Long positions above 1.5845 with targets @ 1.5895 &
1.5915 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.5845 look for further downside with
1.582 & 1.5795 as targets.
Comment: the pair remains on the upside and is approaching its previous high.
Key levels
1.5945
1.5915
1.5895
1.5879 last
1.5845
1.582
1.5795
Copyright 1999 - 2012 TRADING CENTRAL
Trading Central recommends MT5 to publish FX charts
Copyright Trading Central 1999-2011
Update on supports and resistances.
Pivot: 1.5845
Our preference: Long positions above 1.5845 with targets @ 1.5895 &
1.5915 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.5845 look for further downside with
1.582 & 1.5795 as targets.
Comment: the pair remains on the upside and is approaching its previous high.
Key levels
1.5945
1.5915
1.5895
1.5879 last
1.5845
1.582
1.5795
Copyright 1999 - 2012 TRADING CENTRAL
Trading Central recommends MT5 to publish FX charts
Copyright Trading Central 1999-2011
2012.09.03 11:49:50 RESEARCH: Thailand's inflation will rise above 3% in September
Quotes from Barclays Capital:
-Inflation in Thailand remained flat in August, staying at 2.7% y/y,
in line with our projection, but marginally ahead of market
expectations of 2.6%. Core inflation moved lower to 1.76%.
-We maintain our 2012 projections at 3.0% for headline, and 2.0% for
core inflation. Today's print is unlikely to change the central bank's
dovish stance, as the recent drop in export-dependent industrial
output and private consumption, and weak agricultural income have
increased fears of a slowdown.
-While fuel prices in Thailand remain below the highs seen in the last
12 months, the recent increase is likely to have some second-order
effects on core prices as well. Raw food prices also saw a seasonal
pick up. We believe inflation will rise above 3% in September and
remain above 3% in Q4, as favourable base effects come to an end.
-Inflation in Thailand remained flat in August, staying at 2.7% y/y,
in line with our projection, but marginally ahead of market
expectations of 2.6%. Core inflation moved lower to 1.76%.
-We maintain our 2012 projections at 3.0% for headline, and 2.0% for
core inflation. Today's print is unlikely to change the central bank's
dovish stance, as the recent drop in export-dependent industrial
output and private consumption, and weak agricultural income have
increased fears of a slowdown.
-While fuel prices in Thailand remain below the highs seen in the last
12 months, the recent increase is likely to have some second-order
effects on core prices as well. Raw food prices also saw a seasonal
pick up. We believe inflation will rise above 3% in September and
remain above 3% in Q4, as favourable base effects come to an end.
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