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Monday, 3 September 2012

2012.09.03 11:49:50 RESEARCH: Thailand's inflation will rise above 3% in September

Quotes from Barclays Capital:

-Inflation in Thailand remained flat in August, staying at 2.7% y/y,
in line with our projection, but marginally ahead of market
expectations of 2.6%. Core inflation moved lower to 1.76%.

-We maintain our 2012 projections at 3.0% for headline, and 2.0% for
core inflation. Today's print is unlikely to change the central bank's
dovish stance, as the recent drop in export-dependent industrial
output and private consumption, and weak agricultural income have
increased fears of a slowdown.

-While fuel prices in Thailand remain below the highs seen in the last
12 months, the recent increase is likely to have some second-order
effects on core prices as well. Raw food prices also saw a seasonal
pick up. We believe inflation will rise above 3% in September and
remain above 3% in Q4, as favourable base effects come to an end.

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