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Wednesday, 17 July 2013

2013.07.17 15:17:33 RESEARCH: Mild CNY appreciation trend likely to resume in 2014

Quotes from Standard Chartered:

-Local FX strength has little near-term role to play in macroeconomic rebalancing in China amid subdued domestic activity data, well-contained domestic inflation and mixed commodity prices. As global activity steadily improves into 2014 USD-AXJ more broadly may be on a downward track and China's domestic inflation outturns may deteriorate. We expect a mild CNY appreciation trend to resume in 2014. 

-We also make a modest upward adjustment to the USD-CNY profile further out, forecasting a gradual 1.9% appreciation per year between 2014 and 2017 (based on annual averages). China's productivity gains and current-account surpluses favour trend CNY appreciation, but there are also important domestic economic imbalances which create risks around this central scenario.

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