2012.05.07 04:44:09 CHARTING FOREX: Dollar Bullish Vs Majors Except Yen This Week

By Jerry Tan A Dow Jones Newswires Column SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Following is technical analysis of seven major currency pairs for this week: USD/JPY 1st support - 79.55 (minor) 1st resistance - 80.61 (minor) 2nd support - 79.14 (minor) 2nd resistance - 81.43 (minor) USD/JPY (last 79.82) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the downside this week as long as the pair stays below Wednesday's minor reaction high of 80.61. The daily MACD and stochastic indicators are bearish, but the latter is at the oversold level. Support is at the 79.64-79.55 band, defined by Tuesday's low and the previous cap set Oct. 31, and currently near the 100-day moving average. A fall below 79.55 would target 79.14, the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the advance from the Feb. 1 low of 76.02 to the March 15 high of 84.18; and then the 200-day moving average, coming in now at 78.37. An extension of the fall would target the Feb. 14 low of 77.36. But a rise above 80.61 would tilt the near-term outlook positive, exposing the upside to the April 27 high of 81.43, currently near the 55-day moving average, and then to the 81.71-81.77 band, defined by the April 25 high and the April 20 high. USD/JPY medium-term outlook is negative as the weekly MACD and stochastic indicators are bearish; meanwhile, the five-week moving average is staging a bearish crossover against the 15-week moving average. The currency pair in coming weeks may revisit the Feb. 1 low of 76.02. EUR/USD 1st support - 1.2931 (minor) 1st resistance - 1.3180 (minor) 2nd support - 1.2854 (minor) 2nd resistance - 1.3203 (minor) EUR/USD (last 1.2975) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the downside this week as the daily MACD and stochastic indicators are bearish, while the five-day moving average is below the 15-day moving average and falling. Support is at the Jan. 25 low of 1.2931; a breach would target the Jan. 23 low of 1.2854, and then the Jan. 13 swing low of 1.2624. Resistance is at Thursday's high of 1.3180; a breach would temper the near-term negative outlook, targeting the 55-day moving average, coming in now at 1.3203, and then the downtrend resistance line that runs from the Feb. 29 high of 1.3486, coming in now at 1.3263. An extension of the rise would target Tuesday's reaction high of 1.3284. EUR/USD medium-term outlook is tilting negative as the spot rate has violated support at the Feb. 16 reaction low of 1.2974, and the five-week moving average has staged a bearish crossover against the 15-week moving average. The currency pair in coming weeks may test the 1.2624 support, and then the Aug. 24, 2010 reaction low of 1.2588; a breach would open the way down to the psychological 1.2000 line, and then to the June 7, 2010 low of 1.1875. AUD/USD 1st support - 1.0041 (minor) 1st resistance - 1.0221 (minor) 2nd support - 1.0000 (minor) 2nd resistance - 1.0340 (minor) AUD/USD (last 1.0130) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the downside this week as the daily MACD and stochastic indicators are bearish, while the five-day moving average is below the 15-day moving average and falling. Support is at the Dec. 29 reaction low of 1.0041; a breach would target the psychological 1.0000 line, and then the Dec. 15 reaction low of 0.9857. Resistance is at 1.0221, the previous base set on April 11; a breach would expose the upside to the 200-day moving average, coming in now at 1.0340, and then to the confluence of the 55-day and 100-day moving averages, coming in now at 1.0457 and not far below the April 27 reaction high of 1.0474. AUD/USD negative medium-term outlook is reinstated after the spot rate Friday fell below the April 11 reaction low of 1.0221. The weekly MACD and stochastic indicators are bearish, while the five-week moving average is below the 15-week moving average and falling. A drop below the 0.9857 support would open the way down to the Nov. 23 swing low of 0.9659, and then to the Oct. 4 swing low of 0.9386 in the weeks ahead. NZD/USD 1st support - 0.7862 (minor) 1st resistance - 0.8054 (minor) 2nd support - 0.7767 (minor) 2nd resistance - 0.8130 (minor) NZD/USD (last 0.7918) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the downside this week as the daily chart is negative-biased: the five- and 15-day moving averages are falling, while the MACD and stochastic indicators are bearish, although the latter is at the oversold level. Support is at the Jan. 13 low of 0.7862; a breach would target the Jan. 9 low of 0.7767, and then the Dec. 29 minor reaction low of 0.7648. An extension of the fall would target the Dec. 19 low of 0.7537, and then the Dec. 15 low of 0.7457. Resistance is at 0.8054, the previous base set on March 22 and currently matching the 200-day moving average; a breach would target the 100-day moving average, coming in now at 0.8130, and then the 55-day moving average, coming in now at 0.8195. NZD/USD medium-term outlook has turned negative after the spot rate Thursday fell below the March 22 low of 0.8054. The weekly MACD and stochastic indicators are bearish, while the five-week moving average is below the 15-week moving average and falling. A drop below the 0.7457 support would target the Nov. 25 swing low of 0.7367, and then the March 17, 2011 swing low of 0.7113 in the weeks ahead. GBP/USD 1st support - 1.6078 (minor) 1st resistance - 1.6247 (minor) 2nd support - 1.5926 (minor) 2nd resistance - 1.6301 (moderate) GBP/USD (last 1.6121) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the downside this week as the daily MACD and stochastic indicators are bearish. Support is at the April 25 low of 1.6078; a breach would target the 55-day moving average, coming in now at 1.5926, and then the 200-day moving average, coming in now at 1.5835 and not far above the April 5 reaction low of 1.5802. An extension of the fall would target the 100-day moving average, coming in now at 1.5788, and then the March 12 reaction low of 1.5601. Resistance is at Tuesday's high of 1.6247, and then at 1.6301, the eight-month high hit April 30; a breach would tilt the near-term outlook positive, targeting the Aug. 29 high of 1.6455, and then the Aug. 23 high of 1.6570. GBP/USD medium-term outlook is positive as the five- and 15-week moving averages are rising. The pair in coming weeks may test resistance at the Aug. 19 reaction high of 1.6618; a breach would open the way up to the April 28, 2011 high of 1.6745, and then to the Nov. 16, 2009 high of 1.6877. However, a fall below the 1.5601 support would temper the positive medium-term view. USD/CHF 1st support - 0.9110 (minor) 1st resistance - 0.9334 (minor) 2nd support - 0.9039 (minor) 2nd resistance - 0.9393 (minor) USD/CHF (last 0.9251) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the upside this week as the daily MACD and stochastic indicators are bullish, while the five-day moving average is above the 15-day moving average and rising. Resistance is at the March 15 reaction high of 0.9334; a breach would expose the upside to the Jan. 23 high of 0.9393, and then the Jan. 17 high of 0.9573. Support is at Thursday's low of 0.9110; a breach would target Tuesday's reaction low of 0.9039, and then the April 2 low of 0.8998. An extension of the fall would target the 200-day moving average, coming in now at 0.8966, and then 0.8927, the three-month low when hit on Feb. 24. USD/CHF is likely to consolidate in the weeks ahead as the five-week moving average is meandering sideways. A fall below 0.8927 would tilt the medium-term outlook negative, opening the way down to the Oct. 27 reaction low of 0.8566, and then to the psychological 0.8000 line. But a rise above the Jan. 9 high of 0.9595 would be medium-term positive, exposing the upside to the Jan. 11, 2011 high of 0.9785, and then to the Dec. 1, 2010 reaction high of 1.0066. USD/CAD 1st support - 0.9825 (minor) 1st resistance - 1.0051 (moderate) 2nd support - 0.9796 (moderate) 2nd resistance - 1.0070 (minor) USD/CAD (last 0.9972) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the upside this week as the daily MACD and stochastic indicators are bullish, while the five-day moving average is above the 15-day moving average and rising. Resistance is at the 1.0032-1.0051 band, defined by the April 16 high and the April 11 high, the latter currently matching the 200-day moving average; a breach would target the Jan. 30 high of 1.0070, and then the Jan. 23 high of 1.0162. An extension of the rise would target the Jan. 13 high of 1.0283. Support is at Thursday's low of 0.9825; a breach would target the April 27 reaction low of 0.9796. A drop below 0.9796 would tilt the near-term outlook negative, targeting the Sept. 16 reaction low of 0.9776, and then the Aug. 31 reaction low of 0.9721. USD/CAD negative medium-term outlook is tempered as the five-week moving average is now meandering sideways; meanwhile, the weekly stochastic measure has reverted to bullish mode near the oversold level. A rise above 1.0051 would tilt the medium-term bias positive, opening the way up to the Jan. 9 reaction high of 1.0318, and then to the Dec. 14 reaction high of 1.0423 in the weeks ahead. -By Jerry Tan, Dow Jones Newswires; (65) 6415-4046; jerry.tan@dowjones.com This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security. (END) Dow Jones Newswires May 06, 2012 22:44 ET (02:44 GMT)