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Tuesday, 21 February 2012

World Trade Volumes Rose By 1.4% In December -CPB

World trade volumes rose for the second straight month in December, suggesting that global economic activity may already be stabilizing.

Figures released Tuesday by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, also known as the CPB, showed trade volumes rose 1.4% from November, having risen by 0.8% in that month.

The troubled euro-zone economy was a weak spot, with imports to its 17 members down 1.7% on the month, and exports down 1.2%. By contrast, U.S. imports rose by 1.5% and exports surged by 3.6%, reflecting the relative strength of the world's largest economy in the final months of 2011.

Exports from Asia, and imports to Africa and the Middle East also rose strongly.

"Emerging economies generally did better than advanced economies," the CPB said. "Japanese and euro area imports continued to decline."

The CPB's figures are closely watched by policymakers, including a number of central banks, because they provide the earliest available measure of global trade.

Growth in many economies slowed in the final months of last year as concerns about the impact of a possible default on its debts by the Greek government, or the breakup of the euro zone, weighed on business confidence and roiled financial markets.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Tuesday reported that the combined gross domestic product of its 34 members grew by just 0.1% in the fourth quarter, having expanded by 0.6% in the third.

World trade flows fell in September and October, but their rebound at the end of the year adds to some other evidence that suggests the slowdown won't be long lasting. The OECD's own leading indicator rose slightly in December, the first increase since February 2011. Surveys of purchasing managers at manufacturers and service providers pointed to an increase in activity in January, driven by the U.S., while share prices have risen in many parts of the world.

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