Pages

Wednesday, 25 July 2012

2012.07.25 08:12:02 Australian Dollar Down Late, Low Inflation Won't Seal Rate Cut

Rates At 0600 GMT
Latest Change
AUD/USD 1.0235 -0.6%
AUD/JPY 79.96 -0.9%
6.25% Apr, 2015 2.187% +0.008
5.50% Apr, 2023 2.823% +0.025
10-Yr Spread To U.S. +134 bps +2 bps
SFE Sept 3-Year Futures 97.86 -0.02
SFE Sept 10-Year Futures 97.28 -0.02

By Rachel Pannett


SYDNEY--The Australian dollar was lower late Wednesday even as markets
moved to pare back expectations of an August rate cut by the country's
central bank.

Official inflation data for the second quarter showed core inflation
rose 0.6% in the quarter and 2.0% annually--within the 2%-3% target
band the Reserve Bank of Australia uses to guide its policy decisions.

"Normally, a low inflation result like this would be enough to see the
RBA cut rates. But the difference this time around is that the RBA has
already cut rates by 75 basis points in the past three months," said
HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham. "In our view, this has put them a
little ahead of the game," he said.

At 0600 GMT, the Australian dollar was at US$1.0235 from US$1.0301
late Tuesday and at Y79.96 from Y80.6975.

The official cash rate is currently 3.50% after the RBA cut interest
rates by 50 basis points in May and 25 basis points in June. Overnight
index swap markets are pricing in only a 30% chance of an August
easing following the inflation data.

Su-Lin Ong, head of Australian economics at RBC Capital Markets, said
the Aug. 7 interest rate decision remains a "close call", noting that
policymakers will be influenced more by developments in Europe and the
global economy than by local data. RBC still has an August rate cut
pencilled in.


-Write to Rachel Pannett at rachel.pannett@wsj.com

(Data provided by Reuters)


Subscribe to WSJ: http://online.wsj.com?mod=djnwires


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 25, 2012 02:12 ET (06:12 GMT)

No comments:

Post a Comment