2012.06.08 15:15:03 German Exports Fall From All Time High

--German exports to the euro zone fall sharply as euro-zone demand falls --German imports fall from all regions, could be due to lower domestic demand or falling commodity prices --Germany starts to feel negative impact of crisis, economist says --Bundesbank, analyst views differ on German GDP outlook FRANKFURT--German exports and imports both fell in April from an all-time high in March, reducing the country's current account surplus and dampening the economic growth outlook in Europe's largest economy. "Poor trade activity might be seen as a harbinger of moderation in the economy as a whole as demand is fading, both domestically and externally," Annalisa Piazza, an economist at Newedge, said. Exports fell 1.7% on the month in April to EUR90 billion, after rising for three months in a row, calendar- and seasonally adjusted data released Friday by the Federal Statistics Office, or Destatis, showed. The decline in imports outpaced the fall in exports, with a 4.8% fall on the month to EUR73.9 billion, which also followed a three-month steady increase. "The decline for both indicators was more pronounced than expected and it clearly signals that the German economy starts to suffer from the effects of the current crisis," Piazza said. Robust trade activity has been one of the key drivers of growth in Germany in the first quarter while Friday's data are casting some doubts on the contribution of net exports to growth in the future. As for now, the trade figures remained still positive for their impact on GDP as imports fell faster than exports. The adjusted trade surplus was EUR16.1 billion, up from a slightly revised EUR14 billion in March, Destatis said. Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast an adjusted trade surplus of EUR13.5 billion. German exports to the euro zone fell sharply in April from a year earlier while they rose to non-euro zone member European Union countries as well as to countries outside Europe. Imports fell from all regions, which may be due a fall in demand or/and to falling import prices, especially in commodity prices, Berenberg economist Christian Schulz said. While German domestic demand may remain resilient due to record low unemployment, Germany started the second quarter "on a weak note" and that the trade data confirmed the weak outlook seen earlier this month in falling German manufacturing orders and industrial output, Schulz added. "German GDP growth could thus turn negative again in the second or third quarter, before rebounding towards the end of the year," Schulz said. That's in contrast with the latest forecast of the German central bank. The Bundesbank said in its semi-annual economic forecast Friday that it sees German growth accelerating gradually this year and next, provided that the "world economy continues to recover and the financial and sovereign debt crisis [of the euro zone] doesn't escalate" and as robust labor market conditions will buoy domestic demand. The current-account surplus fell to EUR11.2 billion in April, down sharply from March's slightly upwardly revised EUR19.9 billion. Write to Margit Feher at margit.feher@dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires June 08, 2012 02:45 ET (06:45 GMT)